Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 139,642
2 Rhode Island 137,845
3 South Dakota 137,511
4 Utah 123,020
5 Tennessee 120,845
6 Arizona 117,665
7 Iowa 114,702
8 Oklahoma 112,774
9 Nebraska 112,646
10 Wisconsin 112,441
11 New Jersey 111,524
12 South Carolina 111,143
13 Arkansas 110,750
14 Alabama 107,083
15 Indiana 106,218
16 Kansas 106,088
17 Delaware 105,022
18 Mississippi 104,207
19 Idaho 104,126
20 Illinois 103,891
21 New York 103,643
22 Florida 102,014
23 Nevada 101,383
24 Montana 100,894
25 Georgia 100,336
26 Minnesota 99,740
27 Wyoming 99,545
28 Kentucky 99,138
29 Texas 98,917
30 Massachusetts 98,423
31 Louisiana 97,874
32 Missouri 96,342
33 California 94,343
34 Connecticut 93,605
35 New Mexico 93,469
36 North Carolina 91,672
37 Alaska 90,725
38 Ohio 90,692
39 Michigan 90,160
40 Pennsylvania 88,122
41 Colorado 86,740
42 West Virginia 83,859
43 Virginia 76,267
44 Maryland 72,808
45 New Hampshire 68,331
46 District of Columbia 66,652
47 Washington 51,676
48 Puerto Rico 49,731
49 Maine 43,793
50 Oregon 42,228
51 Vermont 35,777
52 Hawaii 22,584

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 600
2 New Jersey 358
3 Pennsylvania 355
4 Rhode Island 334
5 Maine 328
6 Colorado 322
7 Minnesota 281
8 Florida 277
9 New Hampshire 276
10 North Dakota 253
11 Delaware 246
12 Alaska 243
13 New York 243
14 Illinois 229
15 Puerto Rico 225
16 Nebraska 222
17 Connecticut 217
18 Massachusetts 213
19 West Virginia 212
20 Washington 204
21 Oregon 192
22 Maryland 183
23 Tennessee 182
24 North Carolina 179
25 South Dakota 174
26 Alabama 172
27 Iowa 164
28 Montana 161
29 Ohio 151
30 Virginia 151
31 Indiana 149
32 Nevada 145
33 Wisconsin 144
34 South Carolina 143
35 Texas 143
36 Utah 143
37 Kentucky 142
38 District of Columbia 141
39 Wyoming 135
40 Georgia 133
41 Idaho 133
42 Louisiana 118
43 Missouri 118
44 Vermont 113
45 Mississippi 102
46 Arizona 91
47 New Mexico 81
48 Arkansas 78
49 Kansas 63
50 California 58
51 Oklahoma 50
52 Hawaii 46

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,846
2 New York 2,636
3 Massachusetts 2,541
4 Rhode Island 2,510
5 Mississippi 2,410
6 Arizona 2,365
7 Connecticut 2,254
8 Louisiana 2,220
9 South Dakota 2,211
10 Alabama 2,207
11 Pennsylvania 2,025
12 North Dakota 1,988
13 Indiana 1,968
14 New Mexico 1,919
15 Illinois 1,898
16 Arkansas 1,892
17 Iowa 1,871
18 Michigan 1,826
19 South Carolina 1,823
20 Georgia 1,813
21 Tennessee 1,762
22 Nevada 1,753
23 Texas 1,723
24 Kansas 1,716
25 Oklahoma 1,697
26 Delaware 1,647
27 Ohio 1,628
28 Florida 1,615
29 West Virginia 1,566
30 District of Columbia 1,555
31 California 1,550
32 Missouri 1,493
33 Montana 1,456
34 Kentucky 1,453
35 Maryland 1,426
36 Wisconsin 1,277
37 Minnesota 1,264
38 Virginia 1,248
39 Wyoming 1,218
40 Nebraska 1,215
41 North Carolina 1,195
42 Idaho 1,135
43 Colorado 1,104
44 New Hampshire 936
45 Washington 718
46 Puerto Rico 700
47 Utah 679
48 Oregon 588
49 Maine 572
50 Alaska 434
51 Vermont 389
52 Hawaii 334

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 8
2 New Jersey 4
3 Pennsylvania 4
4 West Virginia 4
5 Arizona 3
6 Florida 3
7 Kentucky 3
8 Montana 3
9 Nevada 3
10 New York 3
11 Puerto Rico 3
12 Alabama 2
13 California 2
14 Connecticut 2
15 Georgia 2
16 Illinois 2
17 Louisiana 2
18 Maryland 2
19 Mississippi 2
20 Missouri 2
21 New Mexico 2
22 North Carolina 2
23 North Dakota 2
24 Rhode Island 2
25 South Carolina 2
26 Tennessee 2
27 Texas 2
28 Virginia 2
29 Arkansas 1
30 Colorado 1
31 Indiana 1
32 Iowa 1
33 Massachusetts 1
34 Minnesota 1
35 Nebraska 1
36 Ohio 1
37 Oklahoma 1
38 South Dakota 1
39 Utah 1
40 Washington 1
41 Wyoming 1
42 Alaska 0
43 Delaware 0
44 District of Columbia 0
45 Hawaii 0
46 Idaho 0
47 Kansas 0
48 Maine 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 356,212 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 349,684 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,810 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 245,757 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,623 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 140,491 185 94
Richland South Carolina 109,268 1007 67
York South Carolina 106,894 1099 65
Orange California 84,817 2137 31
Pierce Washington 52,108 2891 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,546 1821 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,335 2071 34
York South Carolina 1,317 2094 33
Richland South Carolina 1,299 2116 32
Pierce Washington 703 2746 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons